Golden Nuggets: Divisional Round Fantasy Advice for Champions Round
Here are the top 3 players at each fantasy position and some other players who could be useful to your fantasy squads over the weekend.
Quarterbacks
- Lamar Jackson
There are two top options at QB right now and they have a chance to meet up next week in Baltimore: Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the reigning MVP and the future MVP. Let’s start with Jackson, who faces an interesting matchup against the Titans. Tennessee is going to try to stop the Ravens ground game, which no one has really been able to do this season. Lamar may not rush for 100 yards, but the Ravens will be aggressive early in the passing game. I see Jackson throwing for 250 yards and 3 TDs and gaining around 60 on the ground.
2. Patrick Mahomes
We’ll discuss this more later on, but the Texans did a good job of playing man coverage against Mahomes in their first matchup. The gunslinger still had 3 TD passes and played a solid game, but he’s much more effective throwing the ball down the field versus zone coverage. Look for Mahomes to complete a lot of short passes against Texans on Sunday. He may not hit the home runs, but he will gain a lot of yardage. I think 320 yards and 2 TDs is well within his reach.
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3. Russell Wilson
Wilson has struggled mightily against the Packers in his career, despite some incredible moments and wins against Green Bay. Wilson has thrown 10 career interceptions in seven games against Green Bay, including a five interception performance in 2016. That being said, Wilson is at a whole other level right now and the Seahawks entire offense will run through him.
The Packers pass defense is highly rated, but they haven’t faced a ton of strong competition as of late. Meanwhile, their run defense is pretty pedestrian and the Seahawks are without their two best RBs. What does that mean? Look for Wilson rush for at least 40 yards on Sunday.
I love DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers as much as the next guy and I believe both can be successful on Sunday. Watson had KC’s number in the first matchup and Rodgers is still one of the best to ever do it. But Rodgers won’t run the ball as much as Wilson, thereby limiting his potential fantasy points, and Watson is facing a KC defense that is playing great ball right now. I don’t think he’ll have the fantasy output that Wilson will.
Running Backs
1. Dalvin Cook
The 49ers have a good defense, but they’ve had issues stopping the outside run game. Well, guess which team employs one of the best outside run games in the NFL? Yup, the Minnesota Vikings. Dalvin Cook should have a field day, especially if the Vikings commit to running the ball to the left side of the field on first down. I expect Cook to have another big playoff game. 100 yards and a TD seems reasonable on the ground and he will be used in the pass game as well.
2. Derrick Henry
What else is there to say about Henry? The guy is an unstoppable force right now and the Titans are going to feed him the ball. The only concern with Henry is game script. If the Ravens jump on the Titans, as they have with most teams this season, Tennessee could be forced to throw the ball a ton. Obviously that isn’t Henry’s strength. But if the Titans are able to keep it close, Henry should have another monster game.
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3. Raheem Mostert
While the Vikings have an advantage when they run the ball, the 49ers do as well. No team in the NFL runs the ball better out of 2–1 personnel (two RB, two WR, 1 TE) than the 49ers. The Vikings also happen to struggle against this offensive personnel grouping. Kyle Juszczyk is the key to this offensive formation, but he’s not the beneficiary. That would be Raheem Mostert. The 49ers run game should be wildly productive on Saturday afternoon. The only issue is guessing which RB will really be the bell cow. Is it Matt Breida? What about Tevin Coleman? We’ll go with Mostert. It’s a bit risky but he has been the most productive back this season.
Some other guys who could have big weeks: Damien Williams and Aaron Jones. Jones should be no surprise as he was a star for most of the season and is a TD machine. The reason I don’t have him in my top three is because Jamaal Williams could be a factor in the backfield for the Packers and Green Bay may attack Seattle’s poor cornerbacks with Aaron Rodgers. As for Williams, we mentioned in our newsletter that Houston is terrible defending pass-catching RBs. The Texans rank 27th in DVOA versus pass-catching RBs and 28th in open field yards. Someone is going to have a big day out of the Chiefs backfield. Here’s guessing it’ll be Damien Williams.
Wide Receivers
- Davante Adams
The Packers haven’t always featured an aggressive downfield passing attack this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they use play-action early and often to try and jump out to a lead over the Seahawks. Adams is going to have favorable matchups versus Seattle’s unsteady secondary and Aaron Rodgers is going to give his top target chances to make plays down the field. With these opportunities, I expect Adams to have a big game and score at least one TD.
2. DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins has been hit or miss this year and has definitely been mostly miss in the first half of games. However, he has been money in the second half as he showed in the Wild Card game against Buffalo. If the Texans get down early to the Chiefs, it would be in the best interest of Hopkins fantasy owners. Houston should be force feeding their best offensive weapon the ball.
3. Emmanuel Sanders
The 49ers do not have a vertical passing game, it’s very horizontal. My guess is that Kyle Shanahan will do a great job of targeting one of Minnesota’s linebackers and will exploit that matchup all game long by running Sanders across the middle and setting up YAC opportunities. Moreover, San Francisco’s play-action passing attack should find success after the 49ers establish the run.
One other guy I’m interested in from a fantasy perspective that I want to mention is Will Fuller. Perhaps the most irritating fantasy player in recent history, Fuller’s injury concerns have broken a lot of heart over the years. He is a game time decision as he works through a groin injury. That being said, the Chiefs will be without safety Juan Thornhill on Sunday. If Fuller can go, and stay healthy during the game, he’s going to have some big time opportunities. Obviously he’s a high risk option, but sometimes you gotta risk it for the biscuit.
Tight Ends
1. Travis Kelce
The Texans used man coverage well against the Chiefs in their first matchup, resulting in a victory in KC. It was Tyreek Hill’s first game back and KC decided to throw the ball down the field. However, Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense struggles when throwing the ball down the field against man coverage. That being said, Mahomes is wildly effective when throwing it shorter than 15 yards against man coverage. The Texans will likely try to replicate their success from earlier this season, and the Chiefs would be wise to run more of a short passing game on Sunday. So who does that favor? Well, how about Mahomes’ favorite target Travis Kelce. If the Chiefs use this short passing game, look for Kelce to have near double digit receptions.
2. George Kittle
Simply put, Kittle and Kelce are the two top TE options available and no one else is really close. They are by far the two best tight ends in the NFL. This is also a good matchup for Kittle. As we mentioned with Sanders, the 49ers should find opportunities to get Kittle the ball against linebackers, setting up big play opportunities. He may not have 7 or 8 catches, but he should be able to have a couple of big chunk plays.
3. Mark Andrews
If the Titans decide to focus on stopping the run, and they probably should against the Ravens, there is no doubt that Baltimore will get aggressive with its downfield passing attack. That should mean Andrews, who is the most reliable pass-catching option, should have some big play opportunities. The Ravens are the most aggressive first-half team in the NFL and Andrews is a big part of their offense. I wouldn’t be shocked if Andrews has double digit fantasy points by halftime on Saturday night.
If you can’t get any of the top 3 TEs, I think it could be a good idea to pick up either of the Texans tight ends. Darren Fells and Jordan Akins combined for 9 catches and 108 yards against the Chiefs in their first matchup in Week 6. Picking which one to go with could be tough, but I would give the edge to Fells. Either would be an even stronger play if Will Fuller is able to go. More downfield coverage means more opportunities underneath for Akins and Fells.
